MyDD :: Great (PA) Expectations, or Hillary until the end?

Great (PA) Expectations, or Hillary until the end?

by power of truth, Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 03:43:11 PM EST

We're coming up on the BIG Pennsylvania primary with a pretty close race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination. There are a only a few big/medium states left and Obama has a decent lead at this point in the race. The polls have been all over the place, starting with big leads for Hillary, then Obama closing in, then Survey USA's poll today shows an 18-point lead for Hillary.

Most people on this site are strong Hillary supporters. What are the expectations for Pennsylvania? How will the results of PA affect support for Hillary?

More after the jump...

There have been stories in the media and on the blogs talking about the race for the nomination and the chances for each candidate at this stage of the primary. Some Obama supporters have declared the race over and point to the delegate math and seemingly impossible ground for Hillary to make up. Some pundits have given Hillary a 5%-10% chance at this point.

However, there are a number of scenarios with super-delegates, FL/MI, big Hillary wins in the next primaries that could prolong the race and even give Hillary the nomination.

What do you think? What are your expectations for PA? Is there a minimum threshold of victory that Hillary needs to stay in the race? Or is this going all the way to the convention no matter what? What will it take for Hillary supporters to "give up"? What would it take for Obama supporters to credit Hillary's campaign with a "comeback"?

Poll

Votes: 30
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: Hillary Clinton, primary election, Barack Obama, Democrats, candidate support (all tags)

Permalink :: 13 Comments :: Post a Comment

Great (PA) Expectations, or Hillary until the end (2.00 / 2)

I am an Obama supporter, but I respect Hillary and her decision to stay in the race. I think the excitement and registering of new voters is great for the Democratic party.

I don't like the heated arguments over "identity politics", but I hope were moving past that...

by power of truth on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 03:46:06 PM EST

Well, since I believe... (2.00 / 2)

the media is pushing polls by the continued negative Hillary coverage, I'm going to support Clinton through the convention and not listen to a bias media or the polls that are effected by the media coverage.

The media screwed us over with G.W., then the media screwed us over by pushing the Iraq war...I'm not going to listen to them now.

by soyousay on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 03:51:18 PM EST

Re: Well, since I believe... (none / 0)

That's one thing we can ALL agree on. The traditional media just sucks!

Maybe the lousy media will be the issue that helps to re-unite Democrats after the primary?

I cannot tip comments or recommend diaries due to some sort of punishment. Sorry! :-(

by power of truth on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 03:55:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm supporting Biden all the way through Denver. (none / 0)

I don't care if he has dropped out and claims not to want the nomination at that point. I'm still backing him. And if he doesn't win in Denver, I'm going McCain!

by Bob Johnson on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 04:03:51 PM EST

Re: I'm supporting Biden all the way through Denve (none / 0)

You're dropping support for Mike Gravel?!?

I'm shocked!! :-D

by power of truth on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 04:29:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You may laugh... (none / 0)

But you can't stop the GRAVELANCHE. Nobody can.

(Mostly because you can't stop what never started, but that's irrelevant.)

Wouldn't it be nice if there were no rhetorical questions?

by Elsinora on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:14:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Great (PA) Expectations, or Hillary until the (none / 0)

I think Senator Clinton needs to significantly narrow the delegate lead, anything less doesn't help her. Pennsylvania represents 28% of the remaining available elected delegates. A win that nets her like 10 delegates doesn't really help her at all given that there would only be 408 delegates left to allocate in primaries and caucuses.

All the other metrics about popular votes, the electoral vote value of states won, primary delegates being more "worthy" then caucus delegates, all of these things are really great arguments to make in 2012. Here in 2008 it's a delegate race. Yes this means that superdelegates can vote for whomever they wish regardless of who has the lead in elected delegates. I just don't seem them going against that lead. Regardless I don't see Senator Clinton getting out of the race before May. If Senator Obama runs the table through Indiana/North Carolina she might but that isn't too likely of a scenario.

Regardless this race can not continue to the convention. Whoever is the elected delegate leader needs to be recognized as the nominee and the general election campaign allowed to begin. The party can not afford to have it's two candidates fighting eachother all summer while John McCain is left alone.

Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.

by Obama Independent on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 04:13:39 PM EST

Re: Great (PA) Expectations, (none / 0)

Realistically, she needs to win big in PA. But I don't think any of Hillary's supporters will drop her if she doesn't.

Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.

by sricki on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 04:24:10 PM EST

Re: Great (PA) Expectations, or Hillary until the (none / 0)

A win by 10 is fine with me.

By the way Survey USA has North Carolina pegged at 10 points for Obama not the 30 points by other pollsters.

They are really going out on the limb on their polling for PA and NC but I believe they are the best this cycle.

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?sectio n=news/local&id=6068525

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 04:32:43 PM EST

I was playing around with my calculator... (none / 0)

I was messing around with my calculator and came up with some interesting numbers. As of today according to http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/ there are 893 delegates (super and elected) left up for grabs. Senator Obama needs 388 or 43.4% of the remaining delegates to get to 2024 and Senator Clinton needs 525 or 58.8%. Pennsylvania represents 158 of the remaining 893 delegates.

Assuming something similar to Ohio we would see a split of 84 delegates for Senator Clinton and 74 delegates for Senator Obama leaving 735 delegates left if no other superdelegates endorse between now and when Pennsylvania votes. Senator Obama would need 314 or 42.7% of the remaining delegates to win and Senator Clinton would need 441 or 60% of the remaining delegates. Her chances actually get worse with a win that only nets her 10 delegates. In fact anything less then a 14 delegate loss actually improves Senator Obama's chances in terms of how many more delegates he needs.

So to me anything less then a 14 delegate win by Senator Clinton, while nice and will certainly be used as a big propaganda win, actually hurts her chances to win the nomination.

P.S. On the math, sue me, I'm a nerd and proud of it! I like number crunching.

Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.

by Obama Independent on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 04:50:19 PM EST

Re: I was playing around with my calculator... (none / 0)

great, insightful comments. 14%? could go either way...

I would mojo-rate your comments, but I got "tazed" and have been grounded by the Admin's... Hopefully, my penalty is almost up. Does my sentence get reduced for a "decent" diary and comments?

by power of truth on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:42:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was playing around with my calculator... (none / 0)

Not 14%, 14 delegates. This is a delegate race afterall.

Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.

by Obama Independent on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:51:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

14 Delegates (none / 0)

Sorry about that. Lack of sleep...

'14 Delegates' could be the title of a diary about your delegate calculations.

by power of truth on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 08:47:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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